On Sept. 14, 2026, the nationalist first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed a historic memorandum of understanding in Cardiff calling on the British government to prepare for the breakup of the United Kingdom — a day after President Trump, on a visit to Ireland, said Irish reunification “is going to happen eventually” and “might as well happen now.”
Why it matters: It's the first time the devolved leaders of all three non-English UK nations have jointly and formally called for the Union's dissolution — an unprecedented coordinated challenge to Westminster that lands just as a sitting U.S. president publicly cheers on Irish unification, breaking with the traditional American posture of neutrality on Northern Ireland's constitutional status.
Driving the news:
Trump, during stops in Dublin and Doonbeg, said of a united Ireland: “It's going to happen eventually. It might as well happen now,” calling the idea of joining Northern Ireland and the Republic “one of the naturals of all time” — though he declined to weigh in on Scottish independence: “That one I won't talk about yet.”
The next day, Scottish First Minister John Swinney (SNP), Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru) and Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O'Neill (Sinn Féin) signed a joint MOU in Cardiff built around four pillars: economy, energy, international cooperation and self-determination.
Their joint statement declared “Westminster's time is coming to an end” and called on the UK government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change.”
All three leaders ultimately want back into the EU — Scotland and Wales as independent member states, Northern Ireland via reunification with EU member Ireland.
By the numbers: Scotland's last independence referendum, in 2014, went 55%-45% for staying in the UK — roughly 2 million votes to remain versus 1.62 million to leave — the historical baseline both sides are now arguing over.
What they're saying: “Westminster does not and will never serve our people well,” O'Neill said, adding that UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham “will not hold back the tide” of nationalism. Swinney called the current constitutional arrangement unsustainable, predicting a “post-UK future.”
The other side: A spokesperson for Burnham said the government is focused on “delivering change across all four nations” and remains committed to the Union, resisting further “constitutional debates or referendums.” Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay criticized the push to trigger referendums off opinion polling rather than a clear, sustained mandate.
What's next:
The MOU has no legal force on its own — it's a call for Westminster to open constitutional talks, not a referendum trigger.
No referendum has been scheduled in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, and Burnham's government has signaled it wants to avoid one.
The bottom line: Trump's unprompted cheerleading for Irish unity has added an unusual outside jolt to a UK constitutional debate that, for the first time, has all three devolved nations' governments jointly pushing for a “post-UK future” — even as Downing Street insists the Union isn't going anywhere.
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