The U.S. hit Iranian targets up and down the Strait of Hormuz coast, and Iran answered with missiles and drones aimed at American bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq — the sharpest exchange yet in a blockade standoff now in its seventh month.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil, and it has been effectively shut since Feb. 28. Traffic is running at a small fraction of normal, and every day it stays closed adds to the price at American pumps and pulls Washington a step closer to a war it has not declared. — see the closure tracker
Driving the news
Central Command announced the strikes Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET, citing IRGC attempts against commercial shipping in the strait and against U.S. service members in the region. — via AP
The targets were air defenses, radar, maritime assets and mine-laying capability, concentrated on Larak Island and along the southern coast near Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Jask and Chabahar. — via CBS News
Iran fired 13 ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan near the Gulf of Aqaba. Jordanian forces intercepted 10; three fell in empty terrain. Drones and missiles followed at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, and U.S. facilities in Erbil. — via Breitbart
$95.81 — Brent crude Wednesday, up 1.2% on the day — live quote
About 7% — crude’s gain this week
About 50% — crude’s gain this year
$4.10 — average U.S. gasoline, against $3.19 a year ago — via NPR
Day 185 — how long the strait has been shut
What they’re saying
President Trump warned that any Iranian retaliation would be answered much harder, and said the regime would be “totally wiped out” if it responded. — via Fox News and Breitbart
“If the enemy wants us not to export oil from the Persian Gulf, no one will be able to export oil.”
An IRGC spokesman said the U.S. “will regret its new attacks.” — via AP
The other side
The fight is now over who controls the lanes. Iran wants shipping routed north, close to its own coast, and recognition of its authority over access; Washington insists on southern routes near Oman and is escorting vessels through. Tehran says it will return to the June memorandum that briefly thawed the crisis if the U.S. does the same. — via CBS News
The intrigue
This is landing in the middle of an American election year. Gas at $4.10 is the number that travels furthest from the Gulf, and both parties know it.
What’s next
Watch three things: whether Iran’s retaliation moves from intercepted salvos to a strike that kills Americans; whether the Gulf states absorbing Iranian fire stay quiet; and whether crude breaks $100. Goldman cut its Q4 Brent forecast to $80 in June on a reopening deal that never delivered, and the market has already left that call behind.
The bottom line: Six months of blockade have produced a war neither side calls a war, and a chokepoint neither side can open on its own terms.