Republican leaders are throwing fresh outside money at Texas’s marquee Senate race, launching a new super PAC and an eight-figure ad campaign for Ken Paxton just as Democrat James Talarico reports a massive fundraising edge and holds onto a narrow lead in the polls.
Why it matters: Trump personally intervened to help Paxton oust incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary, betting a MAGA-aligned nominee could hold the seat comfortably. Instead, Talarico’s fundraising haul and a tight poll margin have turned what Republicans expected to be a safe hold into one of the cycle’s most competitive Senate races — one that could help decide which party controls the chamber.
Driving the news:
The Senate Leadership Fund, the McConnell- and Thune-aligned super PAC, is launching a new Texas-specific PAC with an eight-figure ad buy starting Friday that will run continuously through Election Day, Fox News reports.
The move follows an earlier $10 million commitment from Trump’s own MAGA, Inc. super PAC to boost Paxton, made earlier this month.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune framed the spending as a party-wide priority: “Republicans are united in keeping him out of the U.S. Senate,” he said of Talarico.
By the numbers:
$10 million: MAGA, Inc.’s initial ad commitment to Paxton.
Eight figures: the Senate Leadership Fund’s new additional ad buy, on top of that.
$72 million vs. $17 million: Talarico’s campaign fundraising total vs. Paxton’s.
51%-48%: Talarico’s edge over Paxton in a Fox News poll conducted in July.
What they’re saying: Paxton told Fox News’ Bret Baier he expects the financial cavalry to close the gap: “Once we highlight stark differences between a socialist and constitutional Republican, he will not win Texas.” Thune cast the race in similarly stark terms, saying Republicans are “united” against a Talarico win.
The other side: Talarico’s campaign has leaned on grassroots strength rather than matching Republican outside spending — he’s outraised Paxton more than 4-to-1 and spent the GOP’s Dallas convention week courting bipartisan support and moderating his public profile, according to the Washington Examiner, betting that voters weighing Paxton’s record won’t be swayed by an ad blitz alone.
What’s next:
The Senate Leadership Fund’s ads begin airing Friday and are slated to run continuously through Election Day.
Texans vote in the general election on Nov. 3, 2026.
The bottom line: Republican leaders are treating a seat Trump helped make competitive as one that now needs saving — proof that even in deep-red Texas, a well-funded Democrat and a polarizing GOP nominee can turn an assumed hold into a real fight heading into the fall.
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