The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its House ratings Friday to show Democrats favored to win control of the chamber in November, with analyst Erin Covey moving 15 races toward Democrats on shifting polling data and campaign-ad spending.
Why it matters: Cook is one of the most closely watched independent election handicappers in Washington, and this is a real shift in its assessment of the battle for the House — a signal that Republicans' redistricting-drawn map may not be enough on its own to hold the chamber seven weeks out from the midterms.
Driving the news:
Cook's updated ratings now show Democrats favored — rated Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic — in 208 House seats, compared with 205 seats where Republicans are favored.
15 races moved toward Democrats in this update, which analyst Erin Covey attributed to shifting polling data and campaign advertising spending in competitive districts.
The 208-205 split still leaves both parties short of the 218 seats needed for a majority, with the balance resting on the remaining Toss-Up races.
By the numbers:
208 — House seats where Cook now rates Democrats Solid, Likely or Lean
205 — seats where Republicans are currently favored
15 — races that shifted toward Democrats in this update
218 — seats needed for a majority in the 435-seat House
What's next:
Cook noted several Republican-held seats currently rated Toss-Up could move into the Lean Democratic column in the coming weeks, which would extend Democrats' projected advantage further.
The bottom line: A 208-205 edge is thin and can move again before November, but it's the clearest sign yet from a top nonpartisan handicapper that Democrats have real momentum in the fight for the House.
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