A federal appeals court ordered Missouri on Monday to scrap its current congressional map and run November's election under new Republican-drawn lines instead — reviving a fight the Supreme Court had twice appeared to kill, and setting up a third showdown at the nation's highest court with one House seat on the line.
Why it matters: The ruling could hand Republicans a seventh of Missouri's eight House seats by eliminating the Kansas City-area district held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver — and it forces the Supreme Court to weigh in for a third time this cycle, with ballots already printed and early voting already underway under the map the court just struck down.
Driving the news:
The 8th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 that Missouri must use the Legislature's 2025 map, not the 2022 map the state had reverted to for the general election.
Judge James Loken (a George H.W. Bush appointee) and Trump appointee Judge Justin Smith formed the majority; Trump appointee Judge David Stras dissented, arguing the challengers lacked standing to sue.
The panel said continuity — not partisanship — decided the case: Missouri already held its August primary under the 2025 lines, and switching back for the general would move roughly 1.4 million residents into different districts.
The ruling reverses Missouri's own Supreme Court, which ordered late last month that the 2025 map must go before voters in a referendum before taking effect, and reinstated the 2022 map for November in the meantime.
It also comes after the U.S. Supreme Court had twice signaled the 2025 map was dead this cycle — Justice Brett Kavanaugh rejected an emergency appeal to revive it on Sept. 8, and the full court froze a lower court's order two days later without explanation.
By the numbers:
7-1: The GOP-to-Democrat seat split under the reinstated 2025 map, up from 6-2 under the map it replaces.
1.4 million: Residents the appeals court says would be shifted into new districts if Missouri kept the 2022 map for the general election.
3rd: The number of times this cycle Missouri's map fight will have reached the U.S. Supreme Court.
Sept. 28: The date the appeals court's injunction takes effect, leaving roughly a one-week window for the Supreme Court to step back in first.
What they're saying: The 8th Circuit's majority wrote bluntly: “Missouri's current plan to use the 2022 map in the November 2026 general election violates the Constitution. Only use of the 2025 map complies with the Constitution and federal law.”
The other side: People Not Politicians Missouri, the group that's fought the GOP map in court, called the timing untenable: “Ballots have been printed, and Missourians have already voted. Thousands more will vote before this order seeks to take effect.” The group says it will file an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court before the injunction takes hold.
What's next:
People Not Politicians Missouri is expected to ask the Supreme Court to block the 8th Circuit's ruling before it takes effect Sept. 28.
If the justices decline to intervene again, Missouri would run its first general election under the new lines with early voting already underway under the old ones — an outcome election-law watchers say could itself invite further litigation.
The bottom line: Missouri's map has been struck down, revived, blocked, and revived again in the space of two months — and with primary ballots already cast under one set of lines, the Supreme Court is about to decide, for the third time, which map actually counts in November.
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